A lack of jobs and opportunity at home is driving the flow of migrants from the continent

The writer is secretary-general of the African Continental Free Trade Area

Misinformation may have sparked the UK’s anti-immigration riots, but anxieties
over illegal immigration are hardly confined to British shores. Pressured by voters,
governments across Europe are scrambling for solutions. Conversely, African
governments are concerned about the exodus of the educated and entrepreneurial
— the dreaded brain drain that stymies development. Yet many of those who leave
would, given the choice, prefer to stay at home, anchored in bonds of family,
culture and community. Economic circumstances conspire against this modest wish.

Recognising the reality, Britain’s new Labour government has pledged £84mn for
projects in Africa and the Middle East to address factors driving people to flee.
While the funding is welcome, it will fail to bring the economic change Africa
requires to stem the root cause of migration: a lack of jobs and opportunity.

True transformation hinges on the rollout of the African Continental Free Trade
Area (AfCFTA) — a landmark agreement that binds 54 nations and about 1.47bn
people into the world’s largest free trade area. Though rising, Africa trades less
with itself than any other continent — changing this will be critical for African
prosperity.

What the continent does send to the rest of the world locks it in lopsided trading
relationships. A legacy of the colonial era, exports from Africa are dominated by
primary goods such as coffee beans, cocoa and raw minerals, leaving it vulnerable
to the vicissitudes of global commodity markets. Outside the continent, refining,
processing and manufacturing add value to these raw materials. Finished goods
are then imported back into Africa, thwarting the continent’s ambitions to become
an economic powerhouse.

However, when African nations engage in trade among themselves, processed and
manufactured goods form more than 42 per cent of their commerce. The AfCFTA
will dismantle tariffs on 97 per cent of total tradeable products within the bloc,
drastically cutting the costs of trade to drive volume. Rather than exporting jobs
abroad, Africa stands to unlock labour-intensive industrialisation throughout the
continent.

World Bank projections illuminate the AfCFTA blueprint. The initiative is slated to
lift 50mn people out of extreme poverty, increase continental incomes and boost
intra-African trade. Meanwhile, investment on the continent could surge as much
as 159 per cent. A vast integrated market casts a wider net for global capital,
mitigating the risk of investing in individual nations and enabling economies of
scale.

To realise this ambitious project, international allies are essential. In 2021, the UK
became the first nation outside Africa to sign a memorandum of understanding to
boost trade with the AfCFTA, committing funds and providing trade policy
expertise to support its implementation. It is vital that the new Labour
government continues this work. Not only does it open markets and investment
opportunities for UK businesses on the continent, it also offers a co-ordinated
approach to comprehensively address irregular migration.

More allies are needed. While the AfCFTA holds the greatest promise for African
prosperity, significant hurdles remain in its implementation. Technical challenges
in streamlining regulatory regimes and digitalising customs procedures persist.
Substantial investment is needed to produce made-in-Africa products that will
spur decent jobs on the continent.

Above all, the continent’s fragmented transport and logistics networks need
investment. Freight lines primarily transport goods from the interior to coastal
ports for export, neglecting regional needs. Greater international collaboration is
required. The partnership between British International Investment, the UK’s
development finance institution, with Emirati logistics company DP World to
support the modernisation and expansion of ports and inland logistics across
Africa is a step in the right direction. But the continent is still facing an
infrastructure funding gap of about $100bn annually.

Yet despite formidable challenges, the AfCFTA is making headway. Launched in
2018, its rollout was delayed by the pandemic and the ripple effects of the war in
Ukraine. Nevertheless, in October 2022 the first shipments under the AfCFTA
framework took place: Kenya and Rwanda exported batteries, tea and coffee to
Ghana. These countries, together with six others, formed a pilot aimed at testing
the framework and identifying necessary adjustments. This year, it expanded to
include a further 39 nations including South Africa and Nigeria, which exported
fridges, bags, ceramics, textiles, cables, smart cards, clinkers, black soap, native
starch and shea butter.

Deep and wide integration will take time. But without structural economic
transformation in Africa, the supply of migrants to the west will rise. There is only
a long-term solution to this challenge. Better to begin the work now.

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